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☆ Two market experts on the recent sell-off in stocks and surge in bond yields
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market experts on the recent sell-off in stocks and surge in bond yieldsBill Stone, The Glenview Trust Company CIO, and Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, discuss how January's hotter-than-expected CPI report impacts the markets, rates, and the Fed.

Persons: Bill Stone, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Glenview Trust Company, Securities

☆ Two market watchers discuss the significant moves in stocks and bonds yesterday
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market watchers discuss the significant moves in stocks and bonds yesterdayGina Sanchez, Chantico Global CEO, and Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, discuss the rally in stocks and move lower in bond yields yesterday.

Persons: Gina Sanchez, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Chantico Global, Securities

☆ Are US Treasurys still a safe-haven asset? An epic bond-market crash and rising default fears are sowing doubts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US

The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia

Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Foreign bond investors are 'extremely concerned' about US deficits while the risk of China and Japan dumping Treasurys looms large
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Foreign bond investors are "extremely concerned" about US deficits, a TD Securities analyst told Insider. The possible dumping of US assets in Japan and China looms large over bond markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, US bond yields retreated sharply over the past week after they hit 17-year highs last month amid a massive bond sell-off. US Treasury demand is hitting another headwind as yields around the world have shot up as well, according to Goldberg. "Europe was at negative interest rates, Japan was at negative interest rates.

Persons: —, Gennadiy Goldberg, It's, Goldberg, that's Organizations: TD, Treasury, Service, TD Securities, Fitch, Treasury Department Locations: Japan, China, Europe, Beijing, Tokyo

☆ Relentless climb in Treasury yields may have further to run after surging to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Randall | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, “ Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Falling stocks, climbing mortgage rates: how 5% Treasury yields could roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are among the factors driving the move. Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. "The longer we remain at higher interest rates, the more likely something is to break." Elon Musk warned that high interest rates could sap electric-vehicle demand, which knocked shares of the sector on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. dollar has advanced an average of about 6.4% against its G10 peers since the rise in Treasury yields accelerated in mid-July.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, Powell, Elon Musk, Tesla’s, gravitating, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Reuters, Global Research, Reuters Graphics, ICE, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Treasuries

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Foreign holdings of US Treasuries in August hit highest since December 2021 -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Total holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.707 trillion in August from $7.655 trillion the previous month. "There is still buying coming through from foreign investors. China's holdings of Treasuries fell further to $805.4 billion in August, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed. Data further showed, major U.S. asset classes showed inflows during the month. Overall, foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in August; net purchases were $61.3 billion, according to U.S. Treasury data.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Jonathan Oatis, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasuries, Treasury, U.S, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Japan, New York, Treasuries, China

☆ Rates are rangebound and in an air pocket of 4.5% to 5.32%, says TD Securities
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRates are rangebound and in an air pocket of 4.5% to 5.32%, says TD SecuritiesGennadiy Goldberg, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at TD Securities, discusses what's driving Treasury yields higher.

Persons: Securities Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: Securities, TD Securities

The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, ‘, we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ”, Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Stocks waver, short-end U.S. yields rise after hawkish Fed statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"They're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.25% as stocks on Wall Street mostly slid. "Right now the message is we're going to leave rates higher for longer to make sure we slay the inflation dragon. Sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. The dollar index rose 0.076%, with the euro down 0.02% to $1.0675.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gennadiy Goldberg, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, Sterling, Brent, Herbert Lash, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Nomiyama, Sharon Singleton, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of England, Bank of, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, MSCI's U.S, Troy , Michigan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, London, Singapore

☆ Analysts react to Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. I do think that they'll remain data dependent and you'll probably hear that from Powell at the 2:30 press conference and going forward as well. So yes, they're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. This is because when the Fed announces an interest rate increase, credit card interest rates typically follow shortly thereafter, which may result in larger minimum monthly payments for credit card holders. While the decision not to raise interest rates this time round mitigates that for now, more interest rate increases may be on the horizon.

Persons: Jerome Powell, GARRETT MELSON, presser, GINA BOLVIN, Powell, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, KARL SCHAMOTTA, GENNADIY GOLDBERG, it's, TOM MARTIN, MICHELE RANERI Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, PPI, OF, TOM, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Powell, WISCONSIN, TORONTO, U.S, ATLANTA, CHICAGO

☆ Foreign holdings of US Treasuries increase in July, China holdings plunge -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Total holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.655 trillion in July, up from $7.562 trillion in the previous month. China's stash of Treasuries dropped to $821.8 billion, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed. "A lot of the increase in foreign holdings was from the Caymans, Luxembourg, Bermuda, which are associated with custodians. Major U.S. asset classes showed mixed results during the month, data showed. Data also showed U.S. residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $36.8 billion in July.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chris Reese, Sonali Paul Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasury, Analysts, TD Securities, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Treasuries, China, New York, Luxembourg, Bermuda, Japan

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Inflation Has Been Easing Fast, but Wild Cards Lie Ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“Inflation is going the right way,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities. Slower rent increases should help to weigh down overall inflation for at least the next year, several economists said. The world’s second-largest economy is growing much more slowly than expected after reopening from pandemic lockdowns. And more generally, Fed policy should help to pull down inflation in the months to come. The central bank has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent over the past year and a half.

Persons: ”, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities Locations: China

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will shed light on one of the murkiest - yet fundamentally most important - tenets of monetary policy: R-star. Even the New York Fed's two most renowned R-star indicators, the Laubach-Williams model and the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, are, metaphorically speaking, miles apart. Martínez-García's estimate of short-term R-star is negative, while the New York Fed staffers' models suggest it has "increased considerably over the past year". The Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the highest since 2007. Longer-dated real bond yields have shot up to their highest level since 2009 even as market expectations for inflation and Fed rates have held steady.

Persons: Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Williams, Enrique Martínez, García, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, David Mericle, Jackson, John Williams reckons, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Kansas City Fed's, Fed, New, Dallas Fed, TD Securities, York, Dallas and New York Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Reuters, New York Times, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, New York, U.S, Dallas

☆ Wall St shares pare losses after choppy trading as yields spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | Thomson Reuters | Delevingne Works Primarily On Enterprise Stories Related To Finance. He Joined Reuters In | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street investors weighed another rise in Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings. U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit nine-month highs on Thursday after employment and other economic data pointed to easing inflation, maintaining their high levels in the afternoon. EURO SHARES DOWNEuropean shares (.STOXX) slipped 0.6%, the third straight day of losses, bruised by disappointing earnings reports and elevated U.S. bond yields. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2%, extending losses after a drop of 2.3% a day earlier. Spot gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,934 an ounce, held in check by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, BoE, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Sterling, Stuart Cole, Morgan Stanley, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Jonathan Oatis, Will Dunham, Alexander Smith Organizations: Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall Street, Nasdaq, TD Securities, Reuters Global, . Labor Department, FTSE, Bank of England, Equiti, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi, Boston, London, Sydney

☆ Fitch downgrades Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac after US rating cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A man walks through a plaza at the new Fannie Mae headquarters in Washington, U.S., October 4, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueAug 2 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday downgraded U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) and senior unsecured debt ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA' after the U.S. rating downgrade on Tuesday. The agency said the cut was a result of Tuesday's downgrade and was "not being driven by fundamental credit, capital or liquidity deterioration at firms". "The downgrade to the ratings of Fannie and Freddie was a certainty after Fitch's downgrade of the US rating since the two ratings are linked," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities. The move to cut U.S ratings on Tuesday drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago.

Persons: Fannie Mae, Kevin Lamarque, Fitch, Freddie Mac Long, Fannie, Freddie, Gennadiy Goldberg, Urvi, Megan Davies, Chris Reese, Sandra Maler Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, U.S, TD Securities, White, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Bengaluru, New York

☆ Soft Landing Optimism Is Everywhere. That’s Happened Before.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation has begun to cool meaningfully, but unemployment remains historically low at 3.6 percent and hiring has been robust. Consumers continue to spend at a solid pace and are helping to boost overall growth, based on strong gross domestic product data released on Thursday. Mr. Powell said that while he was not yet ready to use the term “optimism,” he saw a possible pathway to a relatively painless slowdown. Those rate moves are trickling through the economy, making it more expensive to buy cars and houses on borrowed money and making it pricier for businesses to take out loans. “The prevailing consensus right before things went downhill in 2007, 2000 and 1990 was for a soft landing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities, “ Locations: Washington

☆ Fed raises interest rates, leaves door open to another increase - Reuters News
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hike, the Fed's 11th in its last 12 meetings, set the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, and the accompanying policy statement left the door open to another increase. The Fed raised (the Fed funds target rate) by a quarter point and the vote was unanimous, and the move puts rates at a 22-year high." "We think recent data is consistent with the US policy rate peaking in July, as core CPI inflation slowed sharply in June. "Fed Chair Powell is going to suggest that for the time being that they need to assess more information for inflation. "Markets are for the most part becoming more confident the Fed won't have to raise rates in September.

Persons: GENNADIY GOLDBERG, J Powell, they've, They're, Powell, we've, ELLEN HAZEN, ” MICHAEL BROWN, JACK ABLIN, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” PETER CARDILLO, Jackson, GURPREET GILL, GOLDMAN, QUINCY KROSBY, ” EDWARD MOYA, We'll, we'll Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, Dow, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, PALM BEACH , FLORIDA, WISCONSIN, GOLDMAN SACHS, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S

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